Nasdaq 100 Setup Turns Constructive—But Oil Keeps Bulls on Guard

• Stocks remain rangebound as oil volatility and ceasefire uncertainty keep investors cautious.
• Oil prices drive market direction with Hormuz disruption and geopolitical risks in focus.
• Nasdaq technicals improve but outlook still depends on oil trends and diplomatic progress.

Equity markets are struggling to find direction, and once again, it all comes back to oil. After Wednesday’s sharp sell-off, crude prices have staged a notable rebound, leaving the Nasdaq 100 and broader US indices in something of a holding pattern.

The root of the uncertainty is geopolitical. Reports suggest the Strait of Hormuz remains largely blocked, with Iran responding firmly to Israel’s recent military actions in Lebanon. That has cast serious doubt over the durability of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement, and for now, investors appear reluctant to take strong directional bets.

There is, however, a degree of cautious optimism. The White House has confirmed that direct talks with Iran are set to take place, offering at least some hope that tensions may ease. Still, with Israel continuing its operations in Lebanon, the situation remains fragile and highly fluid.

Oil Remains the Key Driver for Equities

At this stage, it’s difficult to overstate just how influential oil has become for risk assets. Quite simply, if crude stabilises or declines, equities can breathe; if it spikes, expect pressure to return swiftly.

Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister, Saeed Khatibzadeh, described Israel’s actions as a “grave violation” of the ceasefire, and Tehran has so far refused to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. That’s keeping energy markets on edge ahead of high-level talks scheduled in Islamabad this weekend.

A US delegation, including Vice President JD Vance, along with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, is expected to lead discussions. With Iranian officials arriving earlier, indirect negotiations are already underway.

For now, Brent crude has recovered to around $98 per barrel after briefly collapsing from $110 to near $90 on the ceasefire announcement. That rebound is enough to keep equity bulls slightly cautious.

The best-case scenario is fairly clear: a gradual reopening of Hormuz, leading to a steady recovery in supply over the coming weeks. In that case, oil could drift back towards $80 and potentially even $70, easing inflation concerns and providing a tailwind for equities.

On the flip side, if talks break down and the ceasefire collapses entirely, oil could surge back above $100. That would almost certainly weigh on the Nasdaq 100 and risk assets more broadly.

Nasdaq 100 Technical Outlook Improves

From a technical standpoint, the Nasdaq 100 is beginning to look far more constructive than it did just a week ago.

The index has broken above its previous descending trendline, having first established a series of higher lows. The ceasefire-driven rally on Wednesday accelerated that move, pushing prices back above both the 21-day EMA and the 200-day moving average — a meaningful shift in short-term momentum.

This change in structure suggests the bearish phase may be losing its grip, at least for now. In fact, the recent price action is starting to resemble a classic “buy-the-dip” environment.

A key turning point was the reclaiming of the 23,900 level, which also aligned with the November 2025 lows. Holding above that level helped stabilise sentiment, and the subsequent consolidation laid the groundwork for the latest breakout.

Looking ahead, initial support now sits in the 24,450–24,550 zone — effectively the base of the recent move higher. A secondary level to watch lies around 24,750, where the broken trendline comes into play.

On the upside, resistance is building around the psychological 25,000 mark, followed closely by 25,265 — a level tested in the latest rally. A clean break above these could pave the way towards 26,000, where more significant resistance may emerge.

Overall, the Nasdaq 100 is no longer flashing clear bearish signals. But the outlook still hinges heavily on geopolitics. If the ceasefire holds and oil drifts lower, dips are likely to attract buyers. If not, volatility could return just as quickly.

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Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only; it does not constitute a solicitation, offer, advice, counsel or recommendation to invest as such it is not intended to incentivize the purchase of assets in any way. I would like to remind you that any type of asset, is evaluated from multiple perspectives and is highly risky and therefore, any investment decision and the associated risk remains with the investor.

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